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Latest Issue

Late Summer Sandpile

September 20, 2024

Last week, I said I would continue writing about Michael Gurri’s important book, The Revolt of the Public. It turns out giving a proper review of not just the book but all of the comments about the book will require more than a few days’ writing. I am going through almost 100 pages of new comments and quotes from the book and other essayists.

That being the case, I’m moving up a letter I was planning to share with you on my birthday weekend in two weeks. The story about sandpiles and the financial system may be the most popular letter I’ve written in the last 25 years. It is one we should all re-read every few years to remind us how change happens slowly, then suddenly. It is actually a good time given that I am talking about an upcoming crisis and some significant changes ahead. The Gurri book explains some of the reasons.

So, without further comment, let’s think about that single grain of sand that collapsed the sandpile.

Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles

I’ll be quoting from a very important book by Mark Buchanan called Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes HappenI HIGHLY recommend it if you, like me, are trying to understand the complexity of the markets. The book isn’t directly about investing—although he touches on it—it’s about chaos theory, complexity theory, and critical states. It’s written so anyone can understand—no equations, just easy-to-grasp, well-written stories and analogies.

As kids, we all had the fun of going to the beach and playing in the sand....

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