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Previous Newsletters     2007 Article Archive     27-Jun-2008   The Slow Motion Recession Re-visited     20-Jun-2008   Warren Makes a Bet     13-Jun-2008   Whip Inflation Now     06-Jun-2008   When Bubbles Collide     30-May-2008   The Problem with the Euro     23-May-2008   Whither the Price of Oil?     16-May-2008   The Fed at the Crossroads     09-May-2008   Why Investors Fail     02-May-2008   Lies and Other Statistics     25-Apr-2008   The Velocity Of Money     18-Apr-2008   The Muddle Through Question     11-Apr-2008   Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?     04-Apr-2008   Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis     28-Mar-2008   Where is the Bottom in Housing?     21-Mar-2008   Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis     14-Mar-2008   Muddle Through and Your Long Term Returns     07-Mar-2008   What’s That Hissing Sound?     29-Feb-2008   Stagflation and the Fed     22-Feb-2008   The Muddle Through Fed     15-Feb-2008   What Would Warren Do?     08-Feb-2008   Consumers, Credit, and Complications     01-Feb-2008   What Does a Recession Look Like?     25-Jan-2008   What Does the Fed Know?     18-Jan-2008   More BLS BS     11-Jan-2008   What Are They Thinking?     04-Jan-2008   Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery     21-Dec-2007   Pop Go the Bubbles     14-Dec-2007   Things That Go Bump in the Night     07-Dec-2007   Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty     30-Nov-2007   The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering     16-Nov-2007   How do You Spell Stagflation?     09-Nov-2007   Credit Crisis to Credit Crunch     02-Nov-2007   Why the Fed Will Cut Again and Again     26-Oct-2007   As the Subprime Turns     19-Oct-2007   Taking Out the SIV Garbage     12-Oct-2007   The GDP Equation     05-Oct-2007   The Slow Motion Recession     28-Sep-2007   The Return of Muddle Through     21-Sep-2007   Sea Change at the Fed     14-Sep-2007   The Black Swan     07-Sep-2007   Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates?     31-Aug-2007   Hope Is Not a Strategy     17-Aug-2007   The Panic of 2007     10-Aug-2007   The Fugu Ultimatum     03-Aug-2007   The Mortgage Pig in the Python     27-Jul-2007   The Subprime Virus     20-Jul-2007   Fun in the Subprime Summer     13-Jul-2007   The Birth/Death Ratio     06-Jul-2007   Where is the Real Risk in the Subprime Debacle?     29-Jun-2007   $250 Billion in Subprime Losses?     22-Jun-2007   Blame It On Stability     15-Jun-2007   Be Careful What You Wish For     01-Jun-2007   A Little Discretionary Spending, Please     25-May-2007   The US Mortgage Market - Overexposed and Overrated     18-May-2007   Are We There Yet?     11-May-2007   A Most Disruptive Technology     04-May-2007   Stuck in the Middle With You     27-Apr-2007   The Last Bear Standing     20-Apr-2007   What? Me Worry?     13-Apr-2007   What Does a Dollar of Debt Get You?     30-Mar-2007   Draw the Curve, Then Plot the Data     23-Mar-2007   All Subprime, All the Time     16-Mar-2007   The Fingers of Housing Instability     09-Mar-2007   China and the Hedge Fund Dragon     02-Mar-2007   The End Of Complacency?     23-Feb-2007   The 51.9% Recession     16-Feb-2007   Gold, Housing and the Yield Curve     09-Feb-2007   Out of Africa     02-Feb-2007   A Raging Bull     26-Jan-2007   A New Definition of Rich     19-Jan-2007   Capital Keeps Falling on My Head     12-Jan-2007   Should Oil Be $40 or $70?     05-Jan-2007   Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession   2006 Article Archive         29-Dec-2006   Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy     22-Dec-2006   My Personal Portfolio     15-Dec-2006   Party Likes It's 1999     08-Dec-2006   When Will the Housing Market Bottom?     01-Dec-2006   The Recession of 2007     24-Nov-2006   It's All About Your Time Frame     17-Nov-2006   The Coming Collapse in Housing     10-Nov-2006   Honey, I Created A Bubble     04-Nov-2006   The Return of the Muddle Through Economy     27-Oct-2006   That Stubborn Yield Curve     20-Oct-2006   That Permanently High Plateau     13-Oct-2006   Some Additional Firming?     06-Oct-2006   The Inflation of Expectations     29-Sep-2006   Trim Inflation Now     23-Sep-2006   The Visible Slowdown - A New Trend?     15-Sep-2006   A Kinder, Gentler Mr. Market?     08-Sep-2006   The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung     01-Sep-2006   Deja Vu All Over Again     25-Aug-2006   Fingers of Instability     18-Aug-2006   Goldilocks and Just One Bear     11-Aug-2006   Economic Whiplash     04-Aug-2006   A Thousand Barrels a Second     28-Jul-2006   The Return of Stagflation     21-Jul-2006   Goldilocks or Micawber?     14-Jul-2006   The Possibility of a Recession     07-Jul-2006   The End of Medicine     30-Jun-2006   What the Fed Really Said     23-Jun-2006   2006 Mid-Year Forecast     16-Jun-2006   The Problem With Indexes     09-Jun-2006   Central Bankers of the World, Unite Again!     02-Jun-2006   It's All About the Data     26-May-2006   The Problem with Stable Prices     19-May-2006   A Foolish Conversation With John Mauldin     12-May-2006   Do Trade Deficits Matter?     05-May-2006   It's Value Time Again     28-Apr-2006   To Pause, or Not To Pause     21-Apr-2006   Islands of Stability     14-Apr-2006   Richard Russell's Wisdom     07-Apr-2006   Fingers of Instability     31-Mar-2006   When Will the Fed Stop?     24-Mar-2006   The Bottomless Well     17-Mar-2006   The Wind Beneath the Economy's Wings     10-Mar-2006   Smoot-Hawley Lives     03-Mar-2006   Central Banker's of the World, Unite!     24-Feb-2006   Probabilities of Recession     17-Feb-2006   The Conundrum of Risk     10-Feb-2006   Greed by Four Lengths     03-Feb-2006   Ahead of the Yield Curve     27-Jan-2006   Ahead of the Curve     20-Jan-2006   The Rules of Trading     13-Jan-2006   The Sacrifice Ratio     06-Jan-2006   Forecast 2006: On the Gripping Hand   2005 Article Archive         30-Dec-2005   The Yield Curve, Part 8     23-Dec-2005   Be Careful What You Wish For     16-Dec-2005   Do Trade Deficits Matter?     09-Dec-2005   As Though It Were Real Money     02-Dec-2005   Empire of Debt     25-Nov-2005   Our Brave New World, Part Two     18-Nov-2005   Hoping It's Different This Time     11-Nov-2005   This Time It's Different     04-Nov-2005   Thoughts on Pensions and Retirement     28-Oct-2005   The Bernanke Era     21-Oct-2005   Inflation and Fed Policy     14-Oct-2005   Smoothing Out Inflation     07-Oct-2005   Aah, Brave New World     30-Sep-2005   Solving an Old Age Problem     23-Sep-2005   The Singularity Is Near     16-Sep-2005   A Few Good Money Managers     09-Sep-2005   A Critical Juncture     02-Sep-2005   Time to Call an Audible     26-Aug-2005   The Fed Targets Your Home     19-Aug-2005   What Will Cause the Next Recession?     12-Aug-2005   The Greenspan Uncertainty Principle     05-Aug-2005   The World Is Flat     29-Jul-2005   India - The Next Big Player     22-Jul-2005   Those Clever Chinese     15-Jul-2005   Mid-Year Forecast - More See-Saw Fed     08-Jul-2005   Are There Too Many Hedge Funds?     01-Jul-2005   Thoughts on the Housing Bubble     24-Jun-2005   The Idea of Europe     17-Jun-2005   Public Pensions, Public Disasters     10-Jun-2005   Whither Europe and the Euro?     03-Jun-2005   Can the Fed Find the Sweet Spot?     27-May-2005   The Greenspan Conundrum     20-May-2005   Kicks Just Keep Getting Harder to Find     13-May-2005   The Problem With Indexes     06-May-2005   A Stable Disequilibrium     29-Apr-2005   Wildness Lies in Wait     22-Apr-2005   The More Things Change     16-Apr-2005   Forecast: The Next Ten Years     08-Apr-2005   Unexpected Returns     01-Apr-2005   $100 Oil is the Solution     18-Mar-2005   The New Retirement Model     11-Mar-2005   The Trade Deficit End-Game     04-Mar-2005   Why Trade Deficits Matter     25-Feb-2005   The Dollar as the Old Maid     18-Feb-2005   Bretton Woods, Part Two     11-Feb-2005   Blame it on Demographics     04-Feb-2005   Social Security's Flawed Assumption     28-Jan-2005   Insiders Send a Signal     21-Jan-2005   China: One Coin, Two Faces     14-Jan-2005   The Problem of the Endgame     07-Jan-2005   Forecast 2005: The See-Saw Economy   2004 Article Archive         31-Dec-2004   America's Creativity Crisis     17-Dec-2004   The Canary in the Coal Mine     11-Dec-2004   Greenspan: Be Careful What You Ask For     03-Dec-2004   Don't Confuse Me With the Facts     19-Nov-2004   Things That Go Bump in My Worry Closet     12-Nov-2004   Sometimes They Do Ring A Bell     06-Nov-2004   The Next Bush Recession     29-Oct-2004   Premise #3: A Falling Dollar     22-Oct-2004   The Bottom Right Hand Corner     15-Oct-2004   Premise #2: The Muddle Through Era     08-Oct-2004   Elections, Recessions and the Economy     01-Oct-2004   Horse Racing and the CIA     24-Sep-2004   Running Money     17-Sep-2004   The Zero Bound Dilemma     10-Sep-2004   The Problem of French Landscapers     03-Sep-2004   Single Derivative Investing     27-Aug-2004   The Rewards of Lazy Investing     20-Aug-2004   Why Investors Fail     13-Aug-2004   $450 Billion Pension Fund Shortfall     06-Aug-2004   A Lean, Mean Reversion Machine     30-Jul-2004   The Endgame For Mutual Funds     23-Jul-2004   Recession Watch     16-Jul-2004   The China Productivity Miracle     09-Jul-2004   How to Recognize a Housing Bubble     02-Jul-2004   The Real Culprit for High Home Prices     25-Jun-2004   The ARMS Trade     18-Jun-2004   Please Give Me a Housing Bubble     11-Jun-2004   The Great Liberator     04-Jun-2004   The Unwinding of the Carry Trade     28-May-2004   It's Time for the Fed to Reload     21-May-2004   The Sleaziest Journalism on Earth     14-May-2004   The Summer Swoon: A Dearth of Value     07-May-2004   A Mass of Alpha     30-Apr-2004   The Yield Curve, Part 7     23-Apr-2004   Will They Raise or Will They Stay?     16-Apr-2004   Bull's Eye Investing     09-Apr-2004   Employment Games and Other Silly Statistics     02-Apr-2004   The Coming Generational Storm     27-Mar-2004   China Syndromes     19-Mar-2004   Peace in Our Time     12-Mar-2004   Is Someone Ringing A Bell?     05-Mar-2004   Those Magic Unemployment Numbers     27-Feb-2004   Free Trade Wars     20-Feb-2004   Barbarians at the Fed     13-Feb-2004   The Bond Uncertainty Principle     06-Feb-2004   The Unemployment Quandary     30-Jan-2004   The Super Trend Puzzle     23-Jan-2004   How to be a Top 20% Investor     16-Jan-2004   The Supercycle of Debt     09-Jan-2004   2004 Forecast: The Silver Lining Economy     02-Jan-2004   The Outlook for the Housing Market   2003 Article Archive         19-Dec-2003   Oil, Stock Prices and the Dollar     12-Dec-2003   The Fed Said What?     05-Dec-2003   The Problem With Assumptions     28-Nov-2003   The 22 Rules of Trading     21-Nov-2003   Bras, Steel and Bush     14-Nov-2003   Your Inner Spock     08-Nov-2003   The Steroid Economy     31-Oct-2003   Demography is Destiny     24-Oct-2003   Earnings Deflation     17-Oct-2003   Contradictions: The Fed vs. the Bond Market     10-Oct-2003   The Great Balancing Act     03-Oct-2003   The Nature of Change     26-Sep-2003   Take Me Out to the Stockgame     19-Sep-2003   A Considerable Predicament     12-Sep-2003   The Weather Equalization Act     05-Sep-2003   Market Timers or Market Cheaters?     29-Aug-2003   Greenspan's Uncertainty Principle     22-Aug-2003   Manufacturing the Data     15-Aug-2003   Stupid Economist Tricks     08-Aug-2003   Conflicting Opinions     01-Aug-2003   The Velocity of Money     26-Jul-2003   Greenscam: The View From Europe     18-Jul-2003   The Most Unlikely Action     11-Jul-2003   Poker at the Federal Reserve     04-Jul-2003   Mid-2003 Forecast: Muddle Through*     27-Jun-2003   The Investment Matrix Revelations     20-Jun-2003   Bull Market or Bear Market Rally?     13-Jun-2003   The Economic Silly Season     06-Jun-2003   The Bankrupting of America     30-May-2003   The Muddle Through Economy     24-May-2003   The Trend is Your Friend     17-May-2003   Presupposing Deflation     09-May-2003   King Dollar Meets the Guillotine     02-May-2003   Why the Stock Market Is Rising     25-Apr-2003   Investing: Faith Versus History     17-Apr-2003   Understanding Stock Market Behavior     11-Apr-2003   After Iraq: the Real World of Earnings     04-Apr-2003   The Plunge Protection Team     28-Mar-2003   Boneheads, Iraq and the Artificial Dollar     21-Mar-2003   The Real Old Europe     15-Mar-2003   Unintended Consequences: Iraq, Pensions and Index Funds     07-Mar-2003   Deflating Europe, Housing Bubbles and Greenspan's Amnesia     28-Feb-2003   The Muddle Through Middle: Why Stocks Drop While the Economy Grows     21-Feb-2003   Healthcare, Oil Shocks and Deflation     14-Feb-2003   Greenspan Fiddles and the French Dance     07-Feb-2003   The Most Dangerous Threat to Your Retirement     31-Jan-2003   Truth in Advertising: The Fed Fails the Test     24-Jan-2003   The "All Iraq, All the Time" Economy     17-Jan-2003   Iraq, Oil and the Fed Printing Press     11-Jan-2003   2003 Forecast: Transition and Surprise     03-Jan-2003   Collectivized Risks   2002 Article Archive         27-Dec-2002   Whose Investment Prediction Should You Believe?     20-Dec-2002   Why Demographics Tell Us the Market Will Fall     13-Dec-2002   The Doom and Gloom Fed     06-Dec-2002   Fighting Deflation at Point Blank Range     28-Nov-2002   What the Fed Believes     22-Nov-2002   Sucker Rally or New Bull?     15-Nov-2002   Will You Be Able To Retire?     08-Nov-2002   Valuation Madness     01-Nov-2002   Greenspan: Fight Deflation Now     25-Oct-2002   Glass Ceiling Investing     18-Oct-2002   The Grandfather of Bear Markets     11-Oct-2002   Why Investors Fail     04-Oct-2002   History Versus the Fed     27-Sep-2002   Knocking at Deflation's Door     20-Sep-2002   The Sweet Buy and Buy     13-Sep-2002   Bubble, Bubble, Everywhere a Bubble     06-Sep-2002   All God's Children Got Themes     30-Aug-2002   The Housing Bubble Blues     23-Aug-2002   Puzzle Me This, Mr. Market     16-Aug-2002   If It Quacks Like Japan     09-Aug-2002   Under the 'Macro-Scope'     01-Aug-2002   What Expensing Options Will Do     25-Jul-2002   The X Factor     19-Jul-2002   Et Tu, Dell?     12-Jul-2002   Analyze This: Analysts Are Useless     05-Jul-2002   Irrational Assumptions     28-Jun-2002   As the Walrus Said     21-Jun-2002   Blind Dogs and Janus Managers     14-Jun-2002   Re-Setting the Investment Scales     07-Jun-2002   The Dollar Teddy Bear Market     31-May-2002   Investing's Double Standard     24-May-2002   Gravity and the Dollar     17-May-2002   The End of Disinflation     10-May-2002   The Meaning of "Excess"     03-May-2002   Risk Premiums Get Scary     26-Apr-2002   Why Investors Succeed     19-Apr-2002   House of Credit Cards     12-Apr-2002   Analyse This, Merrill     05-Apr-2002   Of Deficit and Dollar Directions     28-Mar-2002   Why Investors Fail     22-Mar-2002   Inflation Rhythms     15-Mar-2002   King Dollar and the Guillotine     08-Mar-2002   Investment Wind Changes     01-Mar-2002   Gold Forecast     22-Feb-2002   Nuclear Waste or Gold?     15-Feb-2002   Economic Denial     08-Feb-2002   Bull Market or Gloom and Doom?     01-Feb-2002   The GDP Waltz     25-Jan-2002   The Muddle Through Economy     18-Jan-2002   Blues Brothers: Enron and Cisco     11-Jan-2002   Simple Deflation     04-Jan-2002   2002 Economic Forecast     2001 Article Archive         14-Dec-2001   The Incredible Shrinking Bond     07-Dec-2001   One More for the Road     30-Nov-2001   Market Insanity     26-Nov-2001   Stock Cycles     16-Nov-2001   Oil Is Not Well     09-Nov-2001   Deflationary Warning Signs     02-Nov-2001   Interest Rate Limbo     26-Oct-2001   The Liquidity Trap     19-Oct-2001   Slip Sliding Away     12-Oct-2001   How Should We Then Invest?     04-Oct-2001   Rules of Engagement     28-Sep-2001   Ghoulies and Ghosties     21-Sep-2001   How Low Can We Go?     14-Sep-2001   Quest for Certainty     06-Sep-2001   Hope Deferred     29-Aug-2001   The Friendless Trend     24-Aug-2001   Dear Chairman Greenspan - Part Deux     17-Aug-2001   Pipeline Economics     10-Aug-2001   The Cisco Hustle     03-Aug-2001   Unemployment Blues     26-Jul-2001   The Case of the Missing Bottom     13-Jul-2001   Recession Blues     30-Jun-2001   Cause for Optimism?     22-Jun-2001   Buying Time     08-Jun-2001   Faith, Part II     01-Jun-2001   Investing on Faith     25-May-2001   Tiny Bubbles?     19-May-2001   Son of a Bubble     11-May-2001   Hedge Funds & You     07-May-2001   What's that Churning Sound     27-Apr-2001   Bear Market Rally     23-Apr-2001   Bond Market Detectives     12-Apr-2001   Bear Market Rally...Now What?     06-Apr-2001   How to Time Bonds     30-Mar-2001   Deflation Made Simple     16-Mar-2001   The Tony Dorsett Economy     13-Mar-2001   Sea Changes     28-Feb-2001   Monet or Picasso?     16-Feb-2001   Greenspan Interpreted